MODEL RELEASE NOTES


Model: KYDP 2024 Primary Turnout

Type: Vote History

Geography: Kentucky

Date: February 28, 2023 (v1)


Background and Goals


The Kentucky Democratic Party (KDP) 2024 Primary Turnout Model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2024 Primary Election. To train and inform this model, a random sample of 2020 primary voters was used to identify commonalities and predict what other voters in Kentucky will do. 


Model Description + Process Overview


A logistic regression model was created to target and identify individuals who are likely to turnout and vote in Kentucky’s 2024 primary election. The model was constructed using voters who were eligible to vote in the 2020 Kentucky Primary Election and assigning values based upon whether a voter cast a ballot in 2020 (“0” for non-voters and “1” for voters) as training data.  


  1. Targets: Voters who had voted in the 2020 primary election

  2. Non-Targets: Voters who did not vote in the 2020 primary election.


Model scores are expressed on a 0-100 scale that represents the probability that a person will vote in the 2024 Primary. The model was used to score the Kentucky voter file (February 1, 2023 version) and will be used to score new voters after each update. 


The model was built using rules-based classifiers on a variety of consumer, political, and demographic data. Each group was selected through a random sample of 10000 voters (3100 targets, 6900 non-targets).  


The model building process determined the most appropriate variables in identifying the differences between target voters and non-target voters. The final score was generated using a linear regression. To validate the model, a randomly selected group of records was held out from the model building process. These holdout records were then scored and analyzed for accuracy. 

Model Evaluation, Validation, and Weights


Area Under Curve (AUC): 

An AUC of .796 indicates that the model’s ranking of primary turnout likelihood aligned with actual primary voters in our testing samples 79.6% of the time. 


Precision: 0.7688

The frequency with which a model was correct when predicting the positive class.


Recall: 0.4860

Out of all the possible positive labels, how many did the model correctly identify?


Accuracy: 0.8001

Fraction of predictions the model got right




The model was validated by scoring the remaining records of primary 2020 voters.  The holdout records were then ranked by model score, separated into ten score ranges, and evaluated. 


When looking at the score ranges, the model correctly identified 93% of primary voters (36,570/39,295) in the 90+ range and 86.11% (164,916/191,519) in the 80-89.99 range.


In the bottom of the score ranges, 3.79% of 2020 primary voters (8,569/226,071) were placed in the 0-9.99 range and 12.36% (130,050/1,052,097) were placed in the 10-19.99 range. 


Score Distribution


Of the 3.59 million voters in Kentucky, the model predicts approximately 1,011,619 Kentucky voters are likely to vote in the 2024 Primary. If using a 50+ score as the basis for most likely turnout, that total is 595,734 voters.  


The following charts show the distribution of model scores for all voting-age persons in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. The charts show score ranges from 0-100 with the bottom chart showing further score breakdowns, with higher scores indicating a higher likelihood of voting in the 2024 Primary Election. 



Versioning Notes


Version #

Version Date

Notes

Turnout Expectation (Avg / 50+)

1

2/28/2022

Initial build of the model.

1,011,619  / 595,734


Usage Notes


To make the most out of this model, users should target voters with higher scores and work down when targeting voters. Please note that as the score range is lowered, the campaign will be targeting voters who are less likely to vote in the 2024 primary .