As the 2024 campaign cycle ramps up, relevant scores will be created and made available to candidate committees. In the interim, the following scores will be accessible for campaigns to start their efforts. As new scores are available, campaign users will be alerted and provided information on these scores (including documentation).
Along with models that are developed nationally, the KDP Data Team will be working on creating and validating models in house for campaign usage. Typically, the fair market value for custom state models is at least $30k-$50k.
Targets:
These are labeled under Targets in the Create A List Section:
Clarity Persuasion Group:
These were created using polling using specific messaging to create a score to use to see which people were most persuadable by topics.
Everyone in these targets are statistically significantly more likely to be persuaded using these arguments
Safe Communities Persuasion - Released 9/1/2024
Using messaging on a comprehensive crime plan to go after illegal guns, working with local police to build trust and that we all deserve to feel safe in our communities.
"We all deserve to feel safe in our communities. This is why Democrats believe we need a comprehensive crime plan to go after illegal guns to make our neighborhoods safer, work with local police to build trust with the community, and get help for the homeless and those suffering with mental illness. MAGA Republican politicians are all about scare tactics and slogans. Democrats believe you deserve to feel safe and have partnered with law enforcement to get them the equipment, training, and staffing levels they need/"
Trump Check Persuasion
Persuaded to support Democrats in the 2024 Elections using messaging that we cannot let Donald Trump have complete control over our government.
"Donald Trump might be president again and we cannot let him have complete control over our government. The MAGA Republicans in Congress have been and will continue to be a rubber stamp for his extreme policies and provide no oversight, no matter how harmful Trump's actions are for the community and country. If Republicans control Congress, they will prioritize keeping Donald Trump happy over doing what's right. We need representatives focused on delivering results for our communities, not playing partisan politics."
Healthcare Costs Persuasion
Using messaging on out of control healthcare costs, lowering drug prices, protecting pre-existing conditions from GOP cuts, and capping the costs of insulin.
"Democrats know healthcare costs are out of control and hurting American families. Insurance and pharmaceutical companies continue to profit billions of dollars off our healthcare needs while denying claims and raising premiums. While Congressional Republicans want to rip away protections for people with preexisting conditions, Congressional Democrats passed legislation that would lower drug costs, ban surprise medical billing, prevent insurance companies from raising rates on people when they get sick, and cap the cost of insulin at $35 a month per seniors"
Abortion Persuasion
Using messaging on Roe v Wade and Republicans' attempts to criminalize abortion.
"Maga Republicans in Congress supported overturning Roe versus Wade, and applauded the Supreme Court taking away a woman's right to have an abortion - even in cases of rape, incest, or to save the woman's life. If they control Congress, they will use the power to ban abortion in all 50 states."
2024 DNC Dem Support (v1 & v2) --- Released 6/1/2024
Modeled by the DNC, this score predicted the likelihood that a voter supports Kamala Harris in a head-to-head matchup against Donald Trump in the 2024 General Election. Scores closer to 100 indicates confidence in Democratic support, and scores closer to 0 denote confidence in GOP support. This score does not predict intensity of support, persuadability, or likelihood of identify as an "Independent".
2024 DNC Turnout Likelihood (Labeld as 2024: Turnout - Targeting --- Released 6/1/2024
Built and maintained by the DNC, this model seeks to predict the likelihood any given voter will turnout to vote in the 2024 General Election. Scores closer to 100 indicate that they will be more likely to turnout, while scores closer to 0 indicate they are less likely to turnout to vote
2024 KYDP Primary Turnout Model (Labeled as 2024: KDP Primary Turnout in VAN)
Built in house based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2024 Primary Election.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/en/support/solutions/articles/44002411216-documentation-2024-kdp-primary-turnout-model
2024 KYDP General Turnout Model (Labeled as 2024: KDP General Turnout in VAN)
Built in house (by Josh Howerton) based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2024 General Election.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/en/support/solutions/articles/44002415030-documentation-2024-kdp-general-turnout-model
2024 Education - Targeting
Modeled by the DNC, this score predicts the likelihood that a voter has a four-year degree.
KYDP Precinct Density Ranks (County and Statewide Versions)
Built in house (by Josh Howerton) to combine data from the Kentucky Voter File, voting boundaries and geographical measurements/calculations to: 1) manipulate precinct size and VR total to calculate people per square mile and 2) standardize precinct density on a 0-1 rank scale.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/folders/44001222303
2022 & 2024 DLCC State House/Senate Support --- (For Respective Office)
Modeled by the DLCC to predict the likelihood a voter will support a Democrat for State House in their area. While waiting on the 2024 models to be built, campaigns will have access to the most recent cycles' scores.
2023 Clarity Beshear Support Score
Modeled by Clarity, this score predicts how likely a person was to vote for Beshear in 2023.
2022 DNC Malaise Score
Modeled by DNC, this score predicts how likely a pro Biden message will not work, higher score = less Pro Biden, even if they are a Strong Democrat.
2020 DNC Volunteer Propensity Overall
Modeled by the DNC, this score is designed to identify the most promising targets for volunteer recruitment by Democratic campaigns and party committees.
2020 Civis Kids in Household
2022 Civis Marriage
2022 Civis Spanish Language Preference
Modeled by Civis, this predicts the probability of an individuals probability of preferring to communicate verbally in Spanish on a scale of 0-100. This does not capture ones fluency in Spanish. Use as high of a score as possible, and for planning purposes start with 80+ score.
2022: TargetSmart Union Support
Modeled by TargetSmart, this predicts the probability a person supports Unions and the general Labor movement.