As the 2024 campaign cycle ramps up, relevant scores will be created and made available to candidate committees. In the interim, the following scores will be accessible for campaigns to start their efforts. As new scores are available, campaign users will be alerted and provided information on these scores (including documentation).
Along with models that are developed nationally, the KDP Data Team will be working on creating and validating models in house for campaign usage. Typically, the fair market value for custom state models is at least $30k-$50k.
2022 DNC Dem Support (v1 & v2) --- Released 4/1/2022
Modeled by the DNC, this score predicted the likelihood that a voter supports a Democratic candidate in a head-to-head matchup against a Republican in the 2022 General Election. Scores closer to 100 indicates confidence in Democratic support, and scores closer to 0 denote confidence in GOP support. This score does not predict intensity of support, persuadability, or likelihood of identify as an "Independent".
2024 KYDP Primary Turnout Model (Labeled as 2024: KDP Primary Turnout in VAN)
Built in house based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2024 Primary Election.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/en/support/solutions/articles/44002411216-documentation-2024-kdp-primary-turnout-model
2024 KYDP General Turnout Model (Labeled as TBD in VAN)
Built in house based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2024 General Election.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/en/support/solutions/articles/44002415030-documentation-2024-kdp-general-turnout-model
KYDP Precinct Density Ranks (County and Statewide Versions)
Built in house to combine data from the Kentucky Voter File, voting boundaries and geographical measurements/calculations to: 1) manipulate precinct size and VR total to calculate people per square mile and 2) standardize precinct density on a 0-1 rank scale.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/folders/44001222303
2022 & 2024 DLCC State House/Senate Support --- (For Respective Office)
Modeled by the DLCC to predict the likelihood a voter will support a Democrat for State House in their area. While waiting on the 2024 models to be built, campaigns will have access to the most recent cycles' scores.
2023 Clarity Beshear Support Score
Modeled by Clarity, this score predicts how likely a person was to vote for Beshear in 2023.
2022 DNC Malaise Score
Modeled by DNC, this score predicts how likely a pro Biden message will not work, higher score = less Pro Biden, even if they are a Strong Democrat.
2022 DCCC Abortion Persuasion Score
Modeled by DCCC, this score predicts the likelihood that a voter will be persuaded by a pro-Choice message.
2022 Civis College Graduate
Modeled by Civis, this score predicts the likelihood that a voter has a four-year degree.
2022 TargetSmart Biden Support
Modeled by TargetSmart, this score is designed to target and identify supporter's of President Joe Biden.
2022 TargetSmart Trump Support
Modeled by TargetSmart, this score is designed to target and identify supporter's of former President Donald Trump.
2020 DNC Volunteer Propensity Overall
Modeled by the DNC, this score is designed to identify the most promising targets for volunteer recruitment by Democratic campaigns and party committees.
2020 Civis Kids in Household
2022 Civis Marriage
2022 Civis Spanish Language Preference
Modeled by Civis, this predicts the probability of an individuals probability of preferring to communicate verbally in Spanish on a scale of 0-100. This does not capture ones fluency in Spanish. Use as high of a score as possible, and for planning purposes start with 80+ score.
2018 Civis Race
Modeled by Civis, this predicts an individual’s likely race with the ability to select on LOW,MEDIUM, and HIGH likelihoods. This score is useful for development of targeting, different outreach programs, and message development.
2018 TargetSmart Ethnicity
Modeled by TargetSmart, this predicts a voters’ ethnicity with what they would most likely identify as. This score is useful for development of targeting, different outreach programs, and message development.
TargetSmart Union Support