As the 2022 campaign cycle ramps up, relevant scores will be created and made available to candidate committees. In the interim, the following scores will be accessible for campaigns to start their efforts. As new scores are available, campaign users will be alerted and provided information on these scores (including documentation).
Along with models that are developed nationally, the KDP Data Team will be working on creating and validating models in house for campaign usage. Typically, the fair market value for custom state models is at least $30k-$50k.
2022 DNC Dem Support (v1) --- Released 4/1/2022
Modeled by the DNC, this score predicted the likelihood that a voter supports a Democratic candidate in a head-to-head matchup against a Republican in the 2022 General Election. Scores closer to 100 indicates confidence in Democratic support, and scores closer to 0 denote confidence in GOP support. This score does not predict intensity of support, persuadability, or likelihood of identify as an "Independent".
2022 DLCC Turnout
Predicts the likelihood a voter will turnout in a state legislative race.
2022 KYDP Midterm Primary Turnout Model (Labeled as 2021: KDP Midterm Primary Turnout Score in VAN)
Built in house based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2022 Midterm Primary Election.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/en/support/solutions/articles/44002216318-2022-kdp-midterm-primary-turnout
2022 KYDP Midterm General Turnout Model (Labeled as 2021: KDP Midterm General Turnout Score in VAN)
Built in house based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter turning out in the 2022 Midterm General Election.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/en/support/solutions/articles/44002216319-documentation-2022-kdp-midterm-general-turnout
2022 KYDP Midterm AVEV Likelihood Model
Built in house based and trained upon Kentucky specific data, this model seeks to predict the likelihood of a registered voter using an absentee ballot or voting early in 2022.
Documentation:TBD
2022 DNC/DCCC Clarity National Turnout Score
Modeled by Clarity, this score seeks to predict the likelihood that a registered voter turning out in the 2022 Midterm General Election.
KYDP Precinct Density Ranks (County and Statewide Versions)
Built in house to combine data from the Kentucky Voter File, voting boundaries and geographical measurements/calculations to: 1) manipulate precinct size and VR total to calculate people per square mile and 2) standardize precinct density on a 0-1 rank scale.
Documentation: https://kydemocratshelp.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/folders/44001222303
2020 DNC Dem Support (v1 & v2)
Modeled by the DNC, this score predicted the likelihood that a voter supports a Democratic candidate in a head-to-head matchup against a Republican in the 2020 General Election. Version 2 (v2) includes additional 2020 data to hone the model.
2020 DNC College Graduate
Modeled by the DNC, this score predicts the likelihood that a voter has a four-year degree.
2020 & 2022 DLCC State House/Senate Support --- (For Respective Office)
Modeled by the DLCC to predict the likelihood a voter will support a Democrat for State House in their area.
2020 DNC Volunteer Propensity Overall
Modeled by the DNC, this score is designed to identify the most promising targets for volunteer recruitment by Democratic campaigns and party committees.
2020 TargetSmart Trump Support
Modeled by TargetSmart, this score is designed to target and identify supporter's of Trump's 2020 re-election campaign.
2020 & 2022 Clarity Choice Support
Modeled by Clarity Labs, this score predicts a voter's likelihood of supporting a woman's right to choose. The model was constructed using four possible responses, with "abortion should be legal, generally available, and subject to only limited regulation" and "regulation of abortion is necessary, although it should remain legal in many cases" being treated as supporting legal abortion. For the 2022 Model, start with an 80+ score to find the most efficient targets for this universe; it is not recommended to talk to anyone with a score under 70 for persuasion or GOTV.
2020 Civis Kids in Household
2020 Civis Marriage
2020 & 2022 Civis Spanish Language Preference
Modeled by Civis, this predicts the probability of an individuals probability of preferring to communicate verbally in Spanish on a scale of 0-100. This does not capture ones fluency in Spanish. Use as high of a score as possible, and for planning purposes start with 80+ score.
2018 Civis Race
Modeled by Civis, this predicts an individual’s likely race with the ability to select on LOW,MEDIUM, and HIGH likelihoods. This score is useful for development of targeting, different outreach programs, and message development.
2018 TargetSmart Ethnicity
Modeled by TargetSmart, this predicts a voters’ ethnicity with what they would most likely identify as. This score is useful for development of targeting, different outreach programs, and message development.
TargetSmart Union Support